Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.     

短时间间隔的土地利用变化监测

传统的土地利用变化监测方法已无法完全满足当前经济的快速发展和城市急剧扩张的要求,利用光学遥感数据对地观测也受到天气和云层覆盖等诸多因素的限制。而Radarsat-1等雷达遥感数据可以在"全天候"的条件下对地表进行观测。论文以Radarsat-1图像获取的24 d时间周期为最短时间间隔,分析了24 d、48 d和72 d时间间隔下的土地利用变化监测,对短时间间隔内的土地利用变化监测的结果进行了总结。监测的结果需要在精度与时间间隔之间做出取舍。对于大部分的情况,24 d的时间间隔已可以得到60%以上精度的结果,部分月份的监测需要48 d的监测时间间隔。若需要更高的精度,则需要72 d甚至更长。     

2016冬季京津冀一次持续重度霾天气过程分析

2016年12月16~21日我国京津冀地区发生了一次持续重度霾天气过程.为了进一步加深对霾的认识和提高对霾的分析预报能力,利用多种资料,对此次重度霾天气过程的环流背景和气象要素等进行了综合性分析.结果表明,此次过程持续时间长,污染强度大,影响范围广,能见度低,以外来输送为主,气溶胶主要分布在600 m以下高度,有一定的极端异常性,静稳天气指数与空气质量指数有较好的对应关系;京津冀地区高空受高压脊前的纬向环流控制,维持偏西气流,冷空气活动弱,以下沉气流为主,水汽含量较低,高空云量较少,低空有暖脊北伸,地面位于高压东南部,受均压场控制,气压梯度较小,受偏南风影响,污染物易于堆积;地面静小风,相对湿度较高,混合层高度较低,不利于污染物的水平和垂直扩散.     

高海拔排土场边坡安全稳定性SBAS-InSAR监测

为解决高海拔排土场边坡安全稳定性监测中常规监测仪器布置和人员值守的高投入、高风险问题,分析西藏山南桑日县某排土场边坡25景Sentinel-1A数据,利用短基线集合成孔径雷达干涉测量(SBAS-InSAR)技术监测终了排土场边坡从2018年11月4日-2020年12月23日期间的地表形变,采用基线估计状态空间模型、自适...     

郑州市大气PM2.5中重金属的污染特征、来源及健康风险评估:基于高分辨数据

为了研究城市大气PM_2.5中重金属的污染特征和来源,于2017年的7月和10月及2018年的1月和4月,利用在线金属分析仪对郑州市大气PM_2.5中的21种元素进行在线检测,分析了重金属浓度变化;通过富集因子、主成分分析和潜在源贡献等方法对重金属进行溯源;采用环境健康风险评价模型评估其健康风险.结果表明,K、 Zn、 Mn、 Pb、 Cu、 As、 Cr和Se的浓度随污染等级的提高而增加;富集因子和主成分分析法结果表明,重金属主要来源为地壳源、混合燃烧源、工业源和机动车源;雷达特征图表明,地壳源主导的污染主要发生在春、冬两季,混合燃烧源主导的污染主要发生在冬季;Pb、 As和Ni受汾渭平原、京津冀和河南南部的传输影响较大,Cd受采样点西北部影响较大;As对成年人和儿童均有显著致癌风险,Pb和Sb对儿童存在显著非致癌风险.     

基于PSD法的船载雷达随机振动响应分析

目的 优化以经验为主的船载雷达结构设计流程,缩短设计周期,提高设计的准确性。方法 提出基于模态分析和PSD法的新的设计流程,利用ANSYS软件对雷达天线和转台结构进行系统的随机振动分析,得到其模态、应力分布、位移云图及响应谱曲线,验证设计的准确性、合理性。结果 得到雷达系统在1σ下的最大应力值和最大变形量分别为14.847 MPa和0.367 mm。结论 新的设计流程可以得到可靠性更高的产品,能有效缩短产品的设计周期,具有重要的借鉴意义。     

基于基准系统比较法的雷达间隔评估

为缓解我国目前飞行流量日渐增加、空域紧张等情况,提出了一种系统评估航空器雷达间隔的新方法。首先,介绍了雷达间隔研究所使用的基准系统比较法,给出了分析方法和评估流程;其次,在综合考虑影响飞行安全各种因素的基础上,利用近距离危险接近概率(CAP)模型和基准系统比较法,建立了航空器间的雷达间隔评估模型,可对航空器飞行安全进行量化分析评估;最后,利用统计学知识和实测数据对该方法进行对比验证。结果表明:1)不同精度的雷达与雷达安全间隔密切相关,直接影响空中交通流量和航空器的运行效率;2)对于普通二次雷达,N-N模型更能反映雷达角度误差的分布情况;3)当雷达间隔为5 n mile时,危险进近概率为1.382 1×10-11,用精度更低(雷达角度误差为0.138 13)的雷达替换时,为保证航空器飞行安全,雷达间隔应增大到5.3 n mile;4)使用高精度雷达进行管制指挥和监控,可提高飞行流量,缓解航班延误,提升管制效率。     

机载雷达天线对飞机雷击附着点影响研究

飞机的雷击附着点是飞机防雷设计研究的基础,是飞机设计中的重要过程。本文以伊尔-76飞机模型为例,依据SAE-ARP5416和国内相关标准规定的雷击附着点试验方法,采用基于传输线矩阵法的数值仿真技术对飞机的雷击附着特性展开研究,分析了机载雷达天线对飞机雷击附着点的影响,为机载雷达天线的雷电防护设计提供了理论基础。     

A HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: An extensive research program in hydrometeorology was recently initiated in the Chicago region. Major objectives are to 1) develop a real-time, prediction-monitoring system for storm rainfall using a combination of weather radar and telemetered raingage data, 2) determine precipitation measurement requirements for hydrologic design, operation, and modeling purposes, 3) define the time-space characteristics of heavy rainstorms in the Chicago urban area, and 4) establish methods for applying the Chicago findings in other cities. Basic components of the field measurement program are a network of over 300 recording raingages in 4000 mi² in and around Chicago, plus two sophisticated weather radar systems for obtaining real-time information on storm parameters pertinent to optimizing operation of urban water resources systems. The raingage networks are to be used to compile information relevant to both design and operational aspects of urban hydrology. Radars are to be used primarily in developing the real-time operational techniques. Testing and evaluation of the real-time operational system will be done in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sanitary District of Chicago, operator of one of the most complex urban water control systems among major metropolitan areas.     

USE OF RADAR TO DERWE A STORM INTENSITY-DURATION CURVE1

ABSTRACT: Rainstorms which exceed the design capacity of conveyance systems and cause extensive damage to structures and property, occur frequently in Alberta. After such a severe storm, an early and quick assessment of the storm's location and magnitude and the corresponding frequency for various duration (storm intensity-duration curve) is often required to estimate the damage. The storm intensity-duration curve is produced with information obtained from a sparse network of recording raingages, thus, creating a high degree of uncertainty in the result. Short-duration precipitation is usually quite variable in Alberta; hencea very dense network of recording precipitation stations would be required to provide precise measurements of the storm intensity-duration curve at all locations. Such a dense network does not exist in Alberta; it would be very expensive to install, maintain, and thus difficult to justify financially. One solution for obtaining a large amount of closely spaced in-intensity-duration values is to use weather radar. Using weather radar data, intensity-duration curves could be produced routinely for any set of prespecified locations. The radar data thus have the potential for facilitating the identification of the return period of rainfall events quickly, cheaply, and precisely when the long-term intensity-duration curves are available. As a pilot project to demonstrate the feasibility of the method and the potential of the radar data, computer software was developed to derive from archived radar data, intensity-duration values for up to a 2,500 2 area for a given storm.